In the present study, time series analysis was used to assess the trend of vegetable production in terms of acreage and production in the feeder zones of Chennai city. The trend of two zones [(zone 1 -Kancheepuram district) & (zone 2 -Thiruvallur district)], was evaluated by the statistical (Paired t) test. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model was used to forecast the area and production of vegetables in the selected zones. From the analysis, the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model is suitable for the cultivation area of the zone 2 and for zone 1 ARIMA (2, 0, 1) model is suitable. ARIMA (2, 0, 1) model is highly suitable for the vegetable production of both the zones. The model performances are validated by comparing the regression co-efficient values. While the model was used for forecasting for the period 2011-12 to 2014-15, decreasing trend was found in cultivated area and production of vegetables in zone 1 however in zone 2, increasing trend was found in cultivated areas whereas decreasing trend was found for the vegetable production. Hence, it can be concluded that if this situation is remaining the same for a long time then the further cultivation of vegetable crops will no longer be possible in both the zones.
